[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM RITA IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 32.1N 94.0W OR ABOUT 25
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA AT 2100 UTC.
IT IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RITA HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND. RITA SHOULD PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAIN ALONG ITS PATH.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 31N-35N BETWEEN 89W-94W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N62W
MOVING E AT 10 KT. THIS LOW CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF T.D.
PHILIPPE.  CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1008 MB EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N32W MOVING
WEST 10 KT.  FURTHER W...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W SOUTH OF
18N.  PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10
TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 59W-62W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10
TO 15 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 69W-75W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 13N25W 9N40W 8N50W 10N60W.  IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RITA IS MOVING INLAND AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS ARE
STILL GREATER THAN 20 KT OVER THE NW GULF...N OF 26N AND W OF
87W. THE ENTIRE GULF HAS SOUTHERLY WINDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR
26N89W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH
SUBSIDENCE W OF 93W.  EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION
IS THE NEXT 24 HOUR TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...AND OVER THE THE NE GULF N OF 27N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A 1004 MB LOW IS
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N73W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
70W-73W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM W PANAMA TO S MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHERLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER N OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N73W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S TO JAMAICA.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W.  A TROUGH
EXTENDS S TO VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  THE REMNANTS
OF PHILIPPE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N62W.  A 1028 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N34W.  SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW
IS FROM 20N-30N E OF 50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N46W.  A LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
20N20W.

$$
FORMOSA


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