[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RITA IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...INLAND...BETWEEN SHREVEPORT
LOUISIANA AND LUFKIN TEXAS. ITS CENTER AT 24/1800 UTC IS NEAR
31.6N 94.2W MOVING NORTH 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND RITA ARE FOUND
FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA
AND POSSIBLY INTO ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI. RITA MADE LANDFALL
AT 330 AM EDT AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IN SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA JUST EAST OF SABINE PASS. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD COVERING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST TO MISSOURI. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH
OF RITA...SOUTH OF 29N WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 25 INCHES...WITH A LARGE
THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE AREAS OF ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA/TEXAS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N62W.
THIS LOW CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. PHILIPPE. A FEW OTHER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE MOVING AROUND THE AREA FROM
27N TO 35N BETWEEN 55W AND 69W. THIS SYSTEM IS PART OF A BIGGER
DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
35N65W TO 29N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N76W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM JUST OFF
THE SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA COAST TO THE MONA PASSAGE TO 23N60W TO
28N56W TO 30N56W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE
MIDDLE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...ALSO ARE
FOUND FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A SURFACE 1009 MB EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 12N32W MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED
WESTWARD...ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 27W AND 35W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH REACHING 7N49W...AND IS MOVING TOWARD AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N16W 13N29W...8N39W 8N48W 11N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE ITCZ...AND
NEAR THE BASE OF THE 7N49W TROUGH...FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W
AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 29W
AND 41W. DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN
19W AND 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EVERYTHING SURROUNDING HURRICANE RITA TAKES UP ALL THE WEATHER
NEWS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
SOUTH OF RITA SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 89W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA... INTO THE OPEN
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP LAYER
TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N76W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND 84W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 70W IN THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH...AND ALSO IS PRESENT EAST OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 64W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW...ONE PART TOWARD THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WHOSE BASE IS
7N49W...AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE RIDGE EAST
OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
35N65W TO 29N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N76W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA COAST TO THE MONA PASSAGE TO 23N60W TO
28N56W TO 30N56W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE
MIDDLE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...ALSO ARE
FOUND FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND 84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CURVES
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF FLORIDA...DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REALLY HAS
BEEN DIGGING...FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD THE
ITCZ...WITH A BASE NEAR 7N49W. THE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 32N35W TO
19N42W TO 7N49W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF
18N EAST OF THE TROUGH.

$$
MT


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