[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Sep 24 09:37:56 CDT 2005


WTNT73 KNHC 241437
SPFAT3
HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  94.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

34.0N  93.5W      46  X  X  X 46   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  1  4  4  9
34.5N  92.0W      22  3  1  1 27   NEW IBERIA LA      X  3  3  4 10
34.5N  91.5W      15  7  1  1 24   PORT ARTHUR TX    99  X  X  X 99
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  2  2   GALVESTON TX      12  X  X  1 13
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        1  X  1  2  4
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  1  1  2
ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  4  4   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  4  4
APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  4  4   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  4  5
PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  1  4  5   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  1  3  4
PENSACOLA FL       X  X  2  6  8   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  1  3  4
MOBILE AL          X  1  3  5  9   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  1  2  3
GULFPORT MS        X  1  4  4  9   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  1  1  2
BURAS LA           X  X  3  4  7

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM SUN TO  7PM SUN
C FROM  7PM SUN TO  7AM MON
D FROM  7AM MON TO  7AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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