[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE STORM AND IS CENTERED
NEAR 28.5N 92.9W AT 23/2300 UTC OR 85 NM SE OF SABINE PASS ALONG
THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...MOVING NW
AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL DUE PRIMARILY TO WIND SHEAR AND LOWER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF RITA SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 140 NM OF THE CENTER
EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 29.9N 64.3W AT
23/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 150 NM S OF BERMUDA AND MOVING WSW 13 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PHILIPPE WAS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 2100 UTC. PHILIPPE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A VAST AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N TO WELL
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 68W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1009 MB EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N31W AND
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED MAINLY TO THE NE OF THE LOW FROM 12N
TO 17N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 53W FROM 9N TO 19N AND IS MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT. FLOW ALOFT IS EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM 9N TO
15N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 61W FROM 8N TO 16N AND IS MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS VERY WEAK AND THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXCEPT OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 13N16W 10N28W AND THEN FROM 8N34W 6N45W 6N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. OTHERWISE ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SURROUNDS RITA AND CONTINUES WELL N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA AS FAR N AS KENTUCKY AND MISSOURI. A
WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA WITH CLOCKWISE FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF
14N W OF 70W AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM
14N TO 17N W OF 75W EASTERLY FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG WITH WINDS IN
THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N74W TO 22N74W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED N OF 22N BETWEEN 68W
AND 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THIS AREA. FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA
N OF ABOUT 15N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W. A STRONG
NORTHERLY JET MARKS THE E EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND IS LOCATED ALONG
32N40W TO 20N42W AND THEN WEAKENS AT ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT NEAR
15N41W. THE JET THEN WRAPS AROUND THE BASE OF A NARROW TROUGH
NEAR 10N38W AND THEN TURNS N AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH 20N33W TO
26N28W WHERE IT DISSIPATES. THE NARROW MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE IS LOCATED FROM 25N35W TO 10N38W. A BROAD RIDGE
ALOFT COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N TO 25N E OF 33W TO
THE AFRICAN COAST.

$$
CAB


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net