[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KHGX 232306
HLSHGX
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-240500-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
605 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT...

...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45...

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
288 AND INTERSTATE 45...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...
AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT.

INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45.

INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION...

.LOCATION...
AT 6 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA
BORDER.

.MOVEMENT...
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA LINE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.INTENSITY...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS
A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.EVACUATION INFORMATION...
EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED
YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING.
TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RISING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. THE PEAK FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURGE MODELS
INDICATE OBSERVED LEVELS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES AND
3 TO 4 FEET IN GALVESTON BAY.

AFTER 5 AM...WATER LEVELS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECEDE IN THE UPPER PORTION
OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE WATER BACK
SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT
COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD CAUSE
WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND
BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5
FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN EAST BAY ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND
AROUND 3 FEET ACROSS THE BAYSIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THESE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COASTAL
FLOODING THAT WILL TAKE 12 PLUS HOURS TO RECEDE.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE
MAINLY EAST OF HIGH ISLAND. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE HIGHER SHOULD THE STORM
VEER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

LOCATION          HIGH TIDE TIME     EXPECTED MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL
                                     RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER

PLEASURE PIER     1113 PM CDT SAT         7.0 FEET

PORT BOLIVAR       211 AM CDT SAT         6.4 FEET

GALVESTON CHANNEL  157 AM CDT SAT         6.4 FEET

SAN LUIS PASS      148 AM CDT SAT         5.5 FEET

JAMAICA BEACH      435 AM CDT SAT         4.5 FEET

MORGANS POINT     1218 PM CDT SAT        -4.0 FEET

EAGLE POINT        551 AM CDT SAT        -2.2 FEET

FREEPORT           113 AM CDT SAT         6.3 FEET

CLEAR LAKE         802 AM CDT SAT        -2.0 FEET

...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTLINE
AND TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS NOW BEING REPORTED JUST INLAND. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) AROUND 8 PM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE NEAR HIGH ISLAND
AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BY 6 AM.

LOCATIONS FROM EAST OF A GALVESTON BAY TO HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD
ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. CHAMBERS COUNTY AND
LIBERTY COUNTY INLAND TO POLK COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO 10 HOURS
OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND
EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD
EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS.

ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT.

THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN
THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE):

COUNTY      SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH)   PEAK GUST (MPH)
------      ---------------------   ---------------
CHAMBERS          95                     110
POLK              70                     85
LIBERTY           85                     100
GALVESTON         85                     100
SAN JACINTO       70                     85
HARRIS            65                     80
TRINITY           65                     80
MONTGOMERY        65                     80
BRAZORIA          60                     75
FORT BEND         60                     75
HOUSTON           60                     75
WHARTON           40                     55
MATAGORDA         40                     55
BRAZOS            40                     55
AUSTIN            50                     65
MADISON           50                     65
WALLER            55                     70
WALKER            60                     75
GRIMES            50                     65
WASHINGTON        45                     60

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS
SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION
OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS
THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA.

...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE
APPROACHES. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES.

...RAINFALL...
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN.

FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX.

THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 630 PM CDT.

$$

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