[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 21 200521

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. ITS
CENTER AT 21/2100 UTC IS NEAR 24.4N 86.8W MOVING WEST 11 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 914 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS POSITION ALSO IS
ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 700
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.  THE EYE IS
WELL-DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF 15 NM.  NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS AROUND THE CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
82W-91W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 21/2100 UTC IS NEAR
21.2N 57.1W MOVING NORTH 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
PHILIPPE IS BEING SHEARED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
W OF THE CENTER THUS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-24N
BETWEEN 50W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 14N.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
37W-40W.  MORE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ
FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 6N20W 5N40W 9N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING W.  OVERCAST CLOUD COVER OVER RITA
COVERS THE GULF WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
32N BETWEEN 80W AND 93W.  THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER RITA
AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP RITA
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.  FURTHER W...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 22N97W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE W GULF W OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N AND W OF
80W DUE TO HURRICANE RITA.  FURTHER SOUTH A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W.  TRADEWINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 70W-74W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC NE FLOW COVERS THEW CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W
WITH AXIS ALONG 20N64W 10N69W.   EXPECT THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
TOGETHER WITH CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PHILIPPE FROM 31N51W TO 25N56W.  A 1026
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N39W.  AFRICAN DUST IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-25N E OF 35W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT 23N62W.  A RIDGE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-55W.  A TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-40W. FINALLY...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA E OF 20W.

$$
FORMOSA


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