[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT73 KNHC 212054
SPFAT3
HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.2N  90.6W      42  X  X  X 42   GALVESTON TX       X  2 11  5 18
26.0N  92.7W      17 13  X  X 30   FREEPORT TX        X  2 12  4 18
27.0N  94.5W       1 18  4  1 24   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  2 12  4 18
MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  3  3  6   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  1 11  5 17
MMTM 222N 979W     X  X  1  1  2   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  4  8  3 15
PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  2  3
MOBILE AL          X  X  1  3  4   GULF 28N 89W       4  6  1  1 12
GULFPORT MS        X  X  2  4  6   GULF 28N 91W       5 11  2  1 19
BURAS LA           X  2  4  3  9   GULF 28N 93W       1 16  3  2 22
NEW ORLEANS LA     X  1  4  5 10   GULF 28N 95W       X  9  9  3 21
NEW IBERIA LA      X  1  7  5 13   GULF 27N 96W       X  9  9  2 20
PORT ARTHUR TX     X  1  8  6 15   GULF 25N 96W       X 10  5  1 16

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1PM THU TO  1AM FRI
C FROM  1AM FRI TO  1PM FRI
D FROM  1PM FRI TO  1PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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