[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT73 KNHC 211445
SPFAT3
HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.0N  90.0W      41  X  X  X 41   GALVESTON TX       X  1  9  6 16
25.7N  92.0W      19  9  X  1 29   FREEPORT TX        X  1 10  6 17
26.6N  94.0W       1 18  4  1 24   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  1 11  5 17
MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  3  5  8   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  1  9  6 16
MMTM 222N 979W     X  X  1  3  4   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  2  9  5 16
PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  1  1  2  4
MOBILE AL          X  X  1  3  4   GULF 28N 89W       3  7  2  2 14
GULFPORT MS        X  X  2  4  6   GULF 28N 91W       2 12  3  2 19
BURAS LA           X  2  4  4 10   GULF 28N 93W       X 12  7  2 21
NEW ORLEANS LA     X  1  3  6 10   GULF 28N 95W       X  5 12  3 20
NEW IBERIA LA      X  1  6  5 12   GULF 27N 96W       X  6 11  3 20
PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  7  7 14   GULF 25N 96W       X  8  6  3 17

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM THU TO  7PM THU
C FROM  7PM THU TO  7AM FRI
D FROM  7AM FRI TO  7AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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