[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE RITA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 82.2W...OR ABOUT  50
MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55
MILES...90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA...AT 20/2100 UTC
MOVING W 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RITA HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 85 KT.  AN
EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON SATELLITE AND OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN
ALL QUADRANTS.  HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER S FLORIDA AND W
CUBA THIS EVENING.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
CENTER FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 78W-85W.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 57.5W...OR 305
MILES  ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AT 20/2100 UTC MOVING NNW 5
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED THE CYCLONE.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BARELY BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
IS ELONGATED FROM S TO NNE.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 55W-58W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS
IN CLUSTERS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN IS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
30W-34W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 14N MOVING W 10
KT.  A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 17N44W HAS SEPARATED FROM THE WAVE AXIS
AS IT GOT PULLED TOWARD PHILIPPE.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE ITCZ ... WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE LOW FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 44W-46W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N20W 7N34W 7N44W 10N50W
14N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 12W-16W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 37W-46W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF BARBADOS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
58W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RITA DOMINATES THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES W AND
INTENSIFIES.  WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DESTINIES RITA TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
WITHIN 24 HOURS.  DRY AIR AND AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  INCREASING MOISTURE FROM RITA SHOULD
REACH 92W WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N DUE TO
RITA.  FURTHER S...A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA
NEAR 11N80W.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THE
UNDERSIDE OF RITA.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N77W WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REACHING N TO
15N.  THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS FOSTERING THE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 78W-82W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 83W-88W. A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W.  WET
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS MOISTURE FROM PHILIPPE LINGERS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N66W.
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...E OF PHILIPPE...
NEAR 20N50W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 29N46W.
ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W.  AN
EASTERLY SURGE HAS BROUGHT A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDES AND 40W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER RITA CONTROLS
THE AREA W OF 70W.  DEEP UPPER LOW IS NEAR 26N60W WITH TROUGH
SSW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG WLY
SHEAR ON PHILIPPE.  UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 12N38W TO 30N45W.  UPPER TROUGHING IS DIGGING IN THE E ATLC
N OF 20N E OF 35W.  A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC ALONG 16N...E OF 20W.

$$
FORMOSA


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