[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 200602
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-201030-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RAINBANDS INCREASING IN FREQUENCY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...
MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND
GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 130 AM EDT...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.

MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS.

BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS.

PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY.

COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WITH A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES...PERSONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS WITH THE
IDEA THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THEIR LOCATION. MIAMI-DADE
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ANNOUNCED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A
STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES
THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE
OPENED...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR
FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY.

WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD COUNTY...PERSONS SHOULD
EXPECT WINDS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 MPH. BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS
RECOMMENDED EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE OPEN. ALL BROWARD COUNTY AND SOME MUNICIPAL
GOVERNMENT OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO
STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY.

COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND
CHOKOLOSKEE. NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE ON WHETHER SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON
TUESDAY.

EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE...INCLUDING FLAMINGO...AND BISCAYNE
NATIONAL PARK ARE CLOSED. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL
CLOSE AT SUNSET.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL
MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE
MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE
STORM TIDES COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW PERSIST. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5
FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL
NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI
BEACH. SOME COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE
HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF
COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE
BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER
ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT
AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL
WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT
OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES
MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM STORM TIDE COULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL BY THEN.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BY TUESDAY MAY BE
ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE. THIS MIGHT CAUSE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE HERBERT HOOVER DIKE...ESPECIALLY FROM
FISHEATING CREEK TO MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON.

...WIND IMPACTS...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AFTER DAWN.
HIGHER WINDS...40 TO 5O MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE ONSET OF THE
HIGHER GUSTS IN RAIN BANDS ACROSS MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IS
EXPECTED BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAWN.

OVER WESTERN PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES...EASTERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER
COUNTY...AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FROM LATER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE STORM...WOULD INCREASE THE EXPECTED WIND IMPACTS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE
TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 75
PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...60 PERCENT IN MIAMI...50 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND
30 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH IS AROUND 30 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...20 PERCENT IN MIAMI...10 PERCENT IN FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND 5 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH.

ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL
PARK...75 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 65 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM
PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS AROUND 45 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES
NATIONAL PARK...30 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 20 PERCENT IN NAPLES.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF
DEERFIELD BEACH...BISCAYNE BAY...AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS
FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WINDS IN RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 50 KNOTS WILL BEGIN EARLY
EARLY MORNING...BEFORE DAWN...ON THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS AND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BY LATER IN THE NIGHT ON
THE SOUTHWEST COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
30 TO 40 KNOTS BY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER DURING THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VERY
ROUGH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DAWN TO 25 TO 35
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO ABOVE 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE STORM...WOULD INCREASE THE EXPECTED WIND IMPACTS.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AND A
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
RAIN BANDS TOWARDS DAWN. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER
DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY
RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND
GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF
RITA FROM NOW ON. THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS RISK WILL PROBABLY BE GREATEST TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINS TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN BANDS ON THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 AM. FOR A GRAPHICAL
DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB
SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

$$

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