[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 191806
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-192200-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...
MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND
GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND HURRICANE
WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS.

BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS.

PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY.

MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EAST CAPE
SABLE EAST ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS.

COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS.

A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 14 MILES
AN HOUR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RITA IS MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES NEAR
FLORIDA BAY SHOULD ENACT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS OF BROWARD
AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND
LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION...
RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON RITA. DO NOT FOCUS SOLELY ON THE PATH OF THE CENTER BUT RATHER
THE CONE OF POTENTIAL ERROR WHEN MAKING PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS. SHOULD RITA MAKE
ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH CONDITIONS WOULD BE WORSE THAN DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY.

MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ANNOUNCED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE
HOMES AND A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A
WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS
WILL BE OPENED...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES
OR FRIENDS.

BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS RECOMMENDED EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE
HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED
THIS AFTERNOON. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR
FRIENDS.

MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD SCHOOLS ARE OPEN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE
CLOSED ON TUESDAY.

COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL ISSUE RECOMMENDATIONS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AMONG WHICH WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR
MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE.

EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE...INCLUDING FLAMINGO...AND BISCAYNE
NATIONAL PARK ARE CLOSED. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL
CLOSE AT SUNSET.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS
HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE
AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD
BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM
TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET
WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL
NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI
BEACH.

MANY COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED
AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM
TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN
EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL
WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT
OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES
MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3
AM WEDNESDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. AS MORE FREQUENT RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 30 MPH TONIGHT. NEAR SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH OF 40 MPH WILL BEGIN WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH...MAINLY OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE
LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF 39 TO 57 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 80
PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...75 PERCENT IN MIAMI...65 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND
53 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS HIGHER 58 TO 73
MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...31 PERCENT IN MIAMI...20 PERCENT IN FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND 11 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS
OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...RANGES FROM 11 PERCENT IN MIAMI
TO 6 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE TO 3 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH.

ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF
WINDS 39 TO 57 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...74 PERCENT
IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 65 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF
WINDS GREATER THAN 58 TO 73 MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL
PARK...33 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 25 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE
MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE 15
PERCENT AT EVERGLADES CITY AND 13 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 10 PERCENT IN
NAPLES.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS IN
RAINBANDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS THIS AFTERNOON REMEMBERING TO
ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE
BAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TONIGHT. WINDS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT BEGINNING.

SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM
AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL
CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD
AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR A
GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT
WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

$$

LUSHINE

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net