[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 191215
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-191600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND REMAINS A THREAT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...
MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND
GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PREPAREDNESS RECOMMENDATIONS AND COUNTY INFORMATION
UPDATED STATUS OF EVERGLADES AND BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARKS

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTH AND WEST TO CAPE SABLE ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR INLAND METROPOLITAN BROWARD...ALL OF MIAMI-DADE AND ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTH TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MILES AN HOUR.
A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RITA IS BECOMING STRONGER AND MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE...
BROWARD...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT METRO MIAMI-DADE AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE
AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST.
IN ADDITION...RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. IT COULD
BECOME NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD THE
FORECAST CHANGE AND A HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA LATER TODAY. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. DO NOT FOCUS
SOLELY ON THE PATH OF THE CENTER BUT RATHER THE CONE OF POTENTIAL ERROR WHEN
MAKING PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS.

MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ANNOUNCE EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AROUND
11 AM TODAY. THE LIKELY RECOMMENDATIONS WILL BE FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS
AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED AND THESE WILL
ALSO BE ANNOUNCED LATER TODAY...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY
WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. MIAMI-DADE SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY BUT A DECISION
FOR TUESDAY WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY.

EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE AND FLAMINGO FACILITY WILL CLOSE AT NOON
TODAY. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET.
BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSING THIS MORNING INCLUDING ELLIOTT KEY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
HIGH TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT ALSO DUE
TO SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED
WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH
THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST
STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY
AND ELLIOTT KEY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF BISCAYNE BAY INCLUDING COCONUT GROVE AND
POSSIBLY FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO MIAMI BEACH. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH
EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOTT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS
OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME COASTAL ACCESS ROADS CAN ALSO EXPECT FLOODING.

FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST METRO ATLANTIC
COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND FREQUENTLY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73
MPH...PARTICULARLY OVER MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD
COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING
THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS VELOCITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT POWER LINES CAUSING
POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUT UP STORM SHUTTERS ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST RANGES FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...62 PERCENT IN MIAMI
...52 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 42 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 8 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 70 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND 63
PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS
AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE
SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64
KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS TODAY REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA
LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST
FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT
VENTURE FAR FROM PORT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON.

SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH
TODAY BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT
GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DETAILING
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL IN AREAS FROM BROWARD TO
PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES
SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY
FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL
DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB
SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

$$

PFOST

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net