[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 190830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ANALYSES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KT.
ALTHOUGH RECON REPORTED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AN EYE HAS NOT YET BEEN
EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES.  CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW STRONG OUTFLOW
OVER MOST SECTORS OF THE CYCLONE.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 29-30 DEG C...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS OR SO.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LATER IN THE
PERIOD WHEN STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM
THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS OUTPUT THROUGH 96 HOURS AND
A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT DAY 5.

BASED ON EARLIER RECON FIXES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN JUST WEST OF DUE
NORTH AND A LITTLE SLOWER...350/6.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60-65W WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS STEERING REGIME IS CONSISTENT WITH A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE....AND SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/0900Z 17.1N  56.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N  56.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.9N  57.2W    75 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 19.9N  57.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N  58.4W    85 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N  59.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 26.5N  60.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 29.5N  60.0W    90 KT

$$


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