[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT73 KNHC 182100
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

23.2N  77.3W      46  X  X  X 46   KEY WEST FL        X 19 11  1 31
23.5N  79.7W      11 22  X  X 33   MARCO ISLAND FL    X 13 12  1 26
23.5N  82.5W       X 11 15  1 27   FT MYERS FL        X  7 14  1 22
MWCG 193N 814W     X  X  1  5  6   VENICE FL          X  2 14  2 18
MUCM 214N 779W    19  2  1  X 22   TAMPA FL           X  1  8  4 13
MUCF 221N 805W     2 17  3  1 23   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  3  5  8
MUSN 216N 826W     X  2 12  3 17   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  4  4
MUHA 230N 824W     X 10 14  1 25   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  1  6  7
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  6 10 16   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  6  6
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  X  9  9   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  6  6
MYMM 224N 730W    99  X  X  X 99   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  5  5
MYSM 241N 745W    46  X  X  X 46   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  6  6
MYEG 235N 758W    56  X  X  X 56   BURAS LA           X  X  X  8  8
MYAK 241N 776W    40  1  X  1 42   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  6  6
MYNN 251N 775W    26  5  X  1 32   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  5  5
MYGF 266N 787W     2 14  2  X 18   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  2  2
MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  X  6  6   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  2  2
MARATHON FL        X 25  6  1 32   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  2  8 10
MIAMI FL           1 22  4  X 27   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1 10 11
W PALM BEACH FL    X 14  6  X 20   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X 12 12
FT PIERCE FL       X  6  7  X 13   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  9  9
COCOA BEACH FL     X  2  5  2  9   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  5  5
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  2  2  4   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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