[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 43.9N 63.8W...OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND
ABOUT 555 MILES... 890 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND ...AT 18/0300 UTC MOVING NE 25 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND NOW
CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ADVECTED TO THE E OF THE
CENTER AND IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 45N-47N BETWEEN 58W-65W.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 55.2W...OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 485
MILES... 780 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AT
18/0300 UTC MOVING NNW 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
MUSHROOMED TO THE S OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH MORE
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP TO 500 NM TO THE NE. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD...AND IMPROVING. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W...OR
ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND...AT 18/0300 UTC MOVING WNW 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN IMPROVING AND
STRENGTHENING. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HRS AND IT IS
ADVISED THAT ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
REMAIN ABREAST OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE
COMING DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS WWD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...S FLORIDA...AND CUBA
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 20N MOVING W AT
10KT.  A 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N32W. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A SHARP LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE WITH
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE NRN END OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 32W-36W.

EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IN
THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA AND T.D. EIGHTEEN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N20W 9N32W 5N40W 8N50W
14N55W 13N60W.  IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MENTIONED
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
21W-25W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF KEY WEST FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
82W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 89W-91W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W.  NE FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE GULF N OF 21N.  THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N HAS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
...EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH MON BEFORE T.D.
EIGHTEEN APPROACHES THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 78W-82W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO REMAINS N OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 76W-79W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER W HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
87W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
CUBA NEAR 22N80W PRODUCING MOISTURE OVER CUBA.  A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR PANAMA AT 11N80W PRODUCING SIMILAR MOISTURE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER T.S.
PHILIPPE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W.  EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO
APPROACHING T.S. PHILIPPE.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N50W
PRODUCING EASTERLY FLOW FROM 24N-32N OVER THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF T.S. PHILIPPE...AND E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS... ALONG 24N56W 18N59W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 51W-58W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CUBA IS PRODUCING
CYCLONIC FLOW W OF 73W.  FURTHER E...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER T.D. EIGHTEEN.  LIKEWISE THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER T.S. PHILIPPE EXTENDS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 30W-70W.  A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
20W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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