[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AT 17/1800 UTC IS NEAR
41.3N 68.2W...MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 41N TO 43N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DEVELOPED AT 17/1500 UTC NEAR
13.0N 55.0W MOVING NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W...AND FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS
BEEN ON TOP OF THIS SYSTEM FOR DAYS. STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD
OCCUR AS THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR AND
30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THE AREA OF THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL-TO-NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME THE FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION AND A FEW FEATURES OF GREAT INTEREST. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 19.5N TO 21.5N
BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN
63W AND 66W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 23N71W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND CURRENTLY ALONG 66W/68W SOUTH
OF 22N. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 25N67W TO 20N70W. THIS AREA
HAS BEEN A HOTSPOT FOR THE FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH
OF THE LAST TWO DAYS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY ARE BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
32W AND 34W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 8N20W 8N30W 8N40W 10N50W 10N58W 9N62W.11N30W 6N40W
6N45W 12N54W 9N60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W...AND FROM 8.5N TO 10N BETWEEN
33W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM ONE ANTICYCLONE COVERS
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. IT APPEARS
THAT A SEPARATE AND SMALLER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LOW CENTER IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH MEXICO...NOW NEAR 17N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE DEVELOPING
SITUATION OF FOUL WEATHER WHICH IS IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/CARIBBEAN SEA BORDER INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN LOW CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 75W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN
81W AND 83W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COME OFF THE
VENEZUELA COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
EVENTUALLY CUT ACROSS THE AREA OF THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR 27N55W TO 27N66W TO SOMEWHAT OF A COL POINT NEAR
29N69W...AND CONNECTING WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 23N71W
LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 27N69W BEYOND 35N65W.
SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ORIGINATING IN THE
U.S.A. AND MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAS ENTERED THE
EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.

$$
MT

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