[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 170845
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  70.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

45.4N  62.4W      19  6  X  X 25   MONCTON NB        21  2  X  X 23
48.0N  56.3W       X 14  3  X 17   YARMOUTH NS       37  X  X  X 37
49.6N  49.7W       X  1  9  2 12   HALIFAX NS        26  2  X  X 28
MONTAUK POINT NY   4  X  X  X  4   SABLE ISLAND NS    6 11  X  1 18
PROVIDENCE RI      6  X  X  X  6   SYDNEY NS          6 15  1  X 22
NANTUCKET MA      53  X  X  X 53   EDDY POINT NS     13 10  X  1 24
HYANNIS MA        33  X  X  X 33   PTX BASQUES NFLD   2 17  1  X 20
BOSTON MA          5  X  X  X  5   BURGEO NFLD        X 17  1  1 19
PORTLAND ME        4  X  X  X  4   ILE ST PIERRE      X 14  3  X 17
BAR HARBOR ME     17  X  X  X 17   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  5  8  X 13
EASTPORT ME       24  X  X  X 24   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  X  7  4 11
ST JOHN NB        25  X  1  X 26

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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