[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 170241
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

43.5N  65.5W      19  5  X  X 24   MONCTON NB         5 14  X  1 20
46.5N  60.0W       X 13  3  X 16   YARMOUTH NS       20  4  X  X 24
48.7N  53.8W       X  X  9  2 11   HALIFAX NS         5 16  X  X 21
MONTAUK POINT NY  10  X  X  X 10   SABLE ISLAND NS    X 12  2  X 14
PROVIDENCE RI     11  X  X  X 11   SYDNEY NS          X 13  3  X 16
NANTUCKET MA      38  X  X  X 38   EDDY POINT NS      X 16  2  X 18
HYANNIS MA        29  X  X  X 29   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  9  6  X 15
BOSTON MA         10  X  X  X 10   BURGEO NFLD        X  5  8  1 14
PORTLAND ME        7  1  X  X  8   ILE ST PIERRE      X  3  9  1 13
BAR HARBOR ME     16  1  1  X 18   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  X  8  2 10
EASTPORT ME       16  4  X  X 20   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  X  2  6  8
ST JOHN NB        12  9  X  X 21

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
C FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
D FROM  8PM SUN TO  8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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