[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 161433
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  74.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

39.8N  70.6W      38  1  X  X 39   BAR HARBOR ME      X 14  1  X 15
42.8N  66.7W       X 16  1  X 17   EASTPORT ME        X 12  3  X 15
46.0N  60.8W       X  1  7  2 10   ST JOHN NB         X  9  5  X 14
CAPE HATTERAS NC  99  X  X  X 99   MONCTON NB         X  5  7  X 12
NORFOLK VA         4  X  X  X  4   YARMOUTH NS        X 12  3  1 16
OCEAN CITY MD     19  1  X  X 20   HALIFAX NS         X  4  8  X 12
ATLANTIC CITY NJ  15  2  X  X 17   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  6  3  9
NEW YORK CITY NY  13  4  X  X 17   SYDNEY NS          X  X  6  3  9
MONTAUK POINT NY  20  6  X  X 26   EDDY POINT NS      X  1  7  2 10
PROVIDENCE RI     12 10  X  X 22   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  5  4  9
NANTUCKET MA      16 11  X  X 27   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  3  6  9
HYANNIS MA        11 13  X  X 24   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  1  7  8
BOSTON MA          5 14  X  X 19   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  X  X  7  7
PORTLAND ME        1 14  X  X 15   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  X  X  6  6

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
C FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
D FROM  8AM SUN TO  8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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