[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA AT 15/1800 UTC IS NEAR 34.7N
75.7W...OR ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND
OPHELIA FROM 32N TO 35N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ITS MOVEMENT IS
NORTHWARD ALBEIT SLOWLY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW GOES
AS FAR NORTH AS 43N TO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE U.S.A.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES SOUTHWARD AS IT PASSES
TO THE EAST OF OPHELIA. SOME OF THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EVENTUALLY REACHES 22N62W NEAR THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
SURROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND OPHELIA...OVER
GEORGIA AND FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE...SOME DEVELOPING WHILE OTHERS BECOME
WEAKER...FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST
15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH THE CLOUD TOPS BEING
SHEARED...FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W. THIS WAVE SHOWS
UP IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
CUTTING ACROSS THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 14N17W 9N26W 8N44W 9N50W 9N61W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N28W 8N30W
8N35W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE
AREA...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN A HEAVY AMOUNT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
WESTWARD AND NOW IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 21N107W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH 32N48W TO 23N64W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N70W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE TROUGH...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. THE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 26N50W TO 22N60W TO
20N65W... CURVING OVER PUERTO RICO TO 16N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SOUTH OF PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CUTS INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AROUND THE FAR
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH EVENTUALLY COVERS THE
46W/47W TROPICAL WAVE. SOME OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS THE FLOW WHICH ALSO IS CUTTING ACROSS THE 58W TROPICAL
WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE OPHELIA EASILY IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF EVERYTHING ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF OPHELIA...
REACHING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A THIN RAIN BAND RUNS FROM 29N72W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W...AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 77W AND
80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF PORTUGAL THROUGH 30N17W TO 23N23W TO
14N27W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THE TROUGH FROM
14N TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. AN ATLANTIC SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 26N50W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
26N50W TO 22N60W TO 20N65W...CURVING OVER PUERTO RICO TO 16N72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N
TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N40W 26N50W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA AROUND THE 46W/47W
TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
MT




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