[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4
WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.


THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA AT 14/1800 UTC IS NEAR 33.9N
77.4W OR ABOUT 35 NM SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. IT IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND OPHELIA
FROM 32N TO 35N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ITS MOVEMENT IS NORTHWARD
ALBEIT SLOWLY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW GOES AS FAR
NORTH AS 43N TO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE U.S.A. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES SOUTHWARD AS IT PASSES TO
THE EAST OF OPHELIA. SOME OF THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY
REACHES 22N62W NEAR THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND OPHELIA...OVER GEORGIA AND
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LOT OF SPACE AROUND THIS WAVE...FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND 43W. TWO AREAS OF SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE
ITCZ...FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 42W AND 45W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN
50W AND 54W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA AROUND THIS WAVE...
FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC A FEW HOURS AGO. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED AND MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N16W 9N29W 10N38W...10N43W 10N50W...10N55W 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SOME CLOUD TOPS BEING SHEARED...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
33W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO SOUTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR
21N102W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS RUN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF WATERS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST OF 30N80W 25N90W 21N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 70W TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE 22N62W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE REACHING THESE
ISLANDS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. THIS MEANS THAT SOME
PRECIPITATION IS REACHING EASTERN NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE OPHELIA EASILY IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF EVERYTHING NEAR
THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. DRY AIR IS
SOUTH OF OPHELIA...REACHING TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A RAIN BAND
WELL SOUTH OF OPHELIA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 30N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE
BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF PORTUGAL THROUGH 30N12W TO 24N22W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THE TROUGH FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 31N38W TO 24N50W TO 22N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N40W 27N47W 24N52W 22N60W 23N64W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA AROUND THE 52W TROPICAL
WAVE.

$$
MT

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