[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 132031
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

34.3N  77.2W      35  X  X  X 35   OCEAN CITY MD      X  2  6  4 12
35.2N  76.1W      13  6  2  X 21   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  4  6 10
35.7N  74.7W       2  9  4  1 16   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  1  7  8
BERMUDA            X  X  X  3  3   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  7  7
SAVANNAH GA        1  1  1  1  4   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  6  6
CHARLESTON SC     12  2  1  X 15   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  5  5
MYRTLE BEACH SC   45  X  X  X 45   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  5  5
WILMINGTON NC     42  X  X  X 42   BOSTON MA          X  X  X  5  5
MOREHEAD CITY NC  23  2  1  X 26   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  4  4
CAPE HATTERAS NC   8  8  3  1 20   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  2  2
NORFOLK VA         2  9  4  1 16

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM WED TO  2AM THU
C FROM  2AM THU TO  2PM THU
D FROM  2PM THU TO  2PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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