[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 121442
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

32.3N  77.7W      99  X  X  X 99   MOREHEAD CITY NC   9  6  3  2 20
33.0N  77.7W      46  X  X  X 46   CAPE HATTERAS NC   2  6  5  4 17
33.9N  77.4W      21  2  1  1 25   NORFOLK VA         X  1  5  7 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  1  1  2   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  1  7  8
JACKSONVILLE FL    1  1  1  2  5   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  5  5
SAVANNAH GA        5  5  2  2 14   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  3  3
CHARLESTON SC     15  3  2  1 21   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC   19  3  1  1 24   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  2  2
WILMINGTON NC     15  4  2  1 22

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM TUE TO  8PM TUE
C FROM  8PM TUE TO  8AM WED
D FROM  8AM WED TO  8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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