[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 120845
SPFAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.9N  77.5W      99  X  X  X 99   MOREHEAD CITY NC   6  8  4  2 20
32.5N  77.6W      53  X  X  X 53   CAPE HATTERAS NC   1  8  5  4 18
33.3N  77.5W      27  1  1  X 29   NORFOLK VA         X  1  6  7 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  1  X  2  3   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  2  8 10
JACKSONVILLE FL    1  2  1  3  7   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  7  7
SAVANNAH GA        3  6  3  2 14   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  4  4
CHARLESTON SC     11  5  2  2 20   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC   13  5  2  2 22   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  2  2
WILMINGTON NC     10  7  3  2 22   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
C FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
D FROM  2AM WED TO  2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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