[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 120240
SPFAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.8N  77.5W      77  X  X  X 77   CAPE HATTERAS NC   1  7  5  5 18
32.2N  77.6W      59  X  X  X 59   NORFOLK VA         X  2  5  7 14
32.9N  77.7W      30  1  1  X 32   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  2  8 10
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  1  2   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  7  7
COCOA BEACH FL     X  1  1  2  4   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  4  4
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  2  3  2  7   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  2  2
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  3  3  3  9   TAMPA FL           X  X  1  1  2
SAVANNAH GA        1  5  4  4 14   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  2  3
CHARLESTON SC      7  5  4  3 19   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1  2  3
MYRTLE BEACH SC    9  6  3  3 21   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  2  2
WILMINGTON NC      8  7  3  3 21   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  2  2
MOREHEAD CITY NC   5  8  4  3 20

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
C FROM  8AM TUE TO  8PM TUE
D FROM  8PM TUE TO  8PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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