[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 112039
SPFAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.9N  77.1W      99  X  X  X 99   NORFOLK VA         X  1  5  6 12
32.4N  77.3W      56  X  X  X 56   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  1  7  8
32.9N  77.3W      42  X  X  X 42   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  5  5
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  3  3
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  1  2  3   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  2  2
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  1  2  3  6   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  2  2
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  3  3  4 10   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  3  4
SAVANNAH GA        2  6  4  3 15   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1  4  5
CHARLESTON SC      8  6  3  2 19   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  3  3
MYRTLE BEACH SC   12  5  2  2 21   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  3  3
WILMINGTON NC     11  5  3  2 21   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  2  2
MOREHEAD CITY NC   8  6  3  3 20   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  2  2
CAPE HATTERAS NC   2  7  4  4 17

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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