[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110631 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

AMENDED FOR FORECASTER NAME

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA IS NEAR 31.6N 75.9W AT
11/0600 UTC...STATIONARY. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 222 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 204 NM
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 33N TO 34N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WEST 10 KT.  WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AT 17N. THE WAVE REMAINS IN A DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 21N
IS MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
61W AND 63W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 20N IS
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE THIS WAVE.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CONTINUING TO INTERACT WITH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH IS ON
TOP OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OFF THE WESTERN SHORES OF JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 14N16W 10N34W 8N40W 12N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NE UNITED STATES IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND YUCATAN
CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 32N102W. DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS AND PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AT THE BASE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.  HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF TO
INCLUDE SE TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS MEANDERING AROUND THREE
CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVES. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR
18N89W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
PANAMA NE TO JUST SW OF JAMAICA. THIS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING TO GET STARTED... WITH
THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 14N66W. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE OPHELIA IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 26N64W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 37N18W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH
OF 25N AND EAST OF 30W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH APPEARS TO BE
CENTERED JUST SW OF OPHELIA AND IS PRODUCING A FAIRLY FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE CYCLONE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NORTH OF THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W.  THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NE OF CENTER FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. A VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS NEAR 25N51W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WNW  TOWARDS OPHELIA. THE HIGH IS PRODUCING
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN
35W-65W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS LOCATED SE OF THE HIGH NEAR 14N44W...AND IS MOVING WSW AT
15-20 KT. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS SW ALONG 20N27W TO NEAR THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE.

$$
MT

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