[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 102030
SPFAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

32.0N  76.0W      99  X  X  X 99   MOREHEAD CITY NC   9  6  2  2 19
32.2N  76.6W      99  X  X  X 99   CAPE HATTERAS NC   2  7  2  3 14
32.5N  77.5W      48  X  X  X 48   NORFOLK VA         X  3  4  4 11
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  2  2   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  2  4  6
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  2  3   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  1  3  4
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  3  4  7   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  2  2
MARATHON FL        X  X  X  2  2   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  2  2
MIAMI FL           X  X  1  3  4   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  3  3
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  2  4  6   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  4  4
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  3  4  7   VENICE FL          X  X  X  4  4
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  3  5  8   TAMPA FL           X  X  1  4  5
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  4  5  9   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  4  5
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  4  6 10   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  4  4
SAVANNAH GA        X  2  5  5 12   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  3  3
CHARLESTON SC      1  6  5  4 16   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    6  7  3  3 19   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  2  2
WILMINGTON NC     10  6  2  2 20

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
C FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
D FROM  2PM MON TO  2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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