[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 101512
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST REPORTED 976 MB AND MEASURED 78 KNOTS AT 700
MB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70
KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OPHELIA IS ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR
040 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN
ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED EITHER SO THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD.

OPHELIA HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND THESE
WINDS MAY BE APPROACHING THE COAST EARLIER THAN THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/1500Z 31.6N  76.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 32.0N  76.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 32.2N  76.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 32.3N  77.4W    75 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 32.5N  78.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 33.5N  79.5W    70 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 35.0N  79.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/1200Z 37.6N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND


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