[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 101437
SPFAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

32.2N  76.9W      99  X  X  X 99   MOREHEAD CITY NC  10  4  2  1 17
32.3N  77.4W      99  X  X  X 99   CAPE HATTERAS NC   2  4  2  3 11
32.5N  78.0W      31  1  X  X 32   NORFOLK VA         X  2  3  4  9
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  2  2   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  1  3  4
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  2  3   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  2  2
MYGF 266N 787W     X  1  2  4  7   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  3  3
MARATHON FL        X  X  X  3  3   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  1  4  5
MIAMI FL           X  X  1  4  5   FT MYERS FL        X  X  1  4  5
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  3  4  7   VENICE FL          X  X  1  4  5
FT PIERCE FL       X  1  3  5  9   TAMPA FL           X  X  1  6  7
COCOA BEACH FL     X  2  3  5 10   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  5  7
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  3  4  4 11   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1  5  6
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  4  4  4 12   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  4  4
SAVANNAH GA        3  6  4  3 16   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  4  4
CHARLESTON SC     12  5  2  2 21   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC   18  3  1  1 23   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  4  4
WILMINGTON NC     17  3  1  1 22   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
C FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
D FROM  8AM MON TO  8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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