[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
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Fri Sep 9 21:40:12 CDT 2005
WTNT44 KNHC 100239
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY TROUGH AND MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HR...BUT CONTINUE AND
EVEN RE-INTENSIFY AS A BAROCLINIC LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR NEAR OR OVER SCANDINAVIA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/14. MARIA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION FOR 72 HR...THEN GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 42.5N 39.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 44.5N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 11/0000Z 48.2N 35.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 11/1200Z 52.0N 33.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/0000Z 55.7N 31.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 13/0000Z 61.0N 24.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/0000Z 66.0N 9.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
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