[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 082028
TCDAT5
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

THE EYE HAS BEEN INTTERMMITTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERAFTER...NATE SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED
BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATINGLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ABOUT 14 KNOTS....WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/2100Z 31.8N  62.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 33.0N  60.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 35.0N  55.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  51.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  46.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 41.0N  35.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW


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