[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081824
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS NEAR 28.6N 79.5W AT
08/1800 UTC...OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA...IT WAS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE
50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. OPHELIA STILL IS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN A GENERAL SENSE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR -80C AND CLOUD HEIGHTS REACHING 52000 FEET...
ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS A BIT MORE TO THE EAST OF THIS BIGGER AREA
FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS WELL-MARKED TO THE WEST...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W...AND TO THE
NORTHEAST AT LEAST NEAR 33N70W. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST SHOWS
THAT OPHELIA MAY BECOME A HURRICANE ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS FROM
NOW IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS NEAR 31.4N 62.8W AT
08/1800 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 130 MILES/210 KM
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. NATE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST 9 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TWO AREAS FROM 30N
TO 33N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. NATE IS IN AN AREA WHICH IS TO THE
EAST OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO ITS WESTERN
SIDE...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY
WIND TO ITS SOUTHEAST. NATE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE
EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS 39.1N 47.6W AT 08/1500 UTC
NEAR 38.3N 48.5W...OR ABOUT 1070 MILES/1725 KM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1115 MILES/1790 KM WEST OF THE AZORES.
MARIA WAS MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE
65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 38N TO 41N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. MARIA IS GAINING SOME
EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...INCLUDING AN EXPANSION OF THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD. THE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS NOT COMPLETE YET.
CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS DIAGRAMS FROM FSU ALSO SUGGEST THE
SYSTEM IS STILL MOSTLY WARM CORE. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...AND IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. DUST FROM AFRICA IS EAST OF THIS
WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO
THE ITCZ THAN TO THIS WAVE...ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
13N18W 10N21W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THIS WAVE
NEAR 13.5N.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM
12N TO 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA OF ALREADY-ESTABLISHED MIDDLE
TO UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N61W
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 24N BETWEEN
56W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. EVEN SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN PUERTO RICO AT THIS MOMENT MAY BE CONSIDERED TO
TO BE AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FLOW WITH THE 19N61W CYCLONIC
CENTER. PRECIPITATION IN HISPANIOLA...AND MAYBE THAT IN PUERTO
RICO...MAY BE ALSO IN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN
BETWEEN THE 19N61W CYCLONIC CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW RELATED TO THE FAR-AWAY OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE NATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH
OF 13N83W 13N79W 12N76W AND WEST OF 14N70W 17N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH RUNS FROM 16N77W INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
TOWARD THAT TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N24W 11N46W 9N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
9N22W 5N30W 6N40W 6N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N102W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS...AND EVEN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 97W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN
GULF WATERS...WEST OF 88W...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF
THE 24N102W CYCLONIC CENTER AND IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 23N EAST OF 87W...BEING PUSHED
WESTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WITH TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 13N85W IN NICARAGUA TO 11N81W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N76W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST.
THE ITCZ IS RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH THIS AREA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL 19N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED
AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS READY TO RECEIVE THE PRESENCE OF
THE APPROACHING 58W/59W TROPICAL WAVE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W
AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. EVEN SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN PUERTO RICO AT THIS MOMENT MAY BE CONSIDERED TO
TO BE AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FLOW WITH THE 19N61W CYCLONIC
CENTER. PRECIPITATION IN HISPANIOLA...AND MAYBE THAT IN PUERTO
RICO...MAY BE ALSO IN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN
BETWEEN THE 19N61W CYCLONIC CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW RELATED TO THE FAR-AWAY OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE NATE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE MARIA IS NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL IT INFLUENCES
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N WEST OF 40W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF HURRICANE MARIA.
THIS WESTERLY FLOW IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER ALSO IS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AND APPROACHES THE AREA
OCCUPIED BY HURRICANE NATE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF NATE SHOOTS OFF AND BECOMES WESTERLY FLOW...
COMBINING WITH THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF MARIA AS IT MOVES TOWARD
32N/33N ALONG 40W. THE OTHER BIG FEATURE IS THE 19N61W MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N
TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 26N37W
BEYOND 33N35W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IMMEDIATELY TO
THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 45W WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR
33N31W.

$$
MT


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