[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 081435
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MARIA REMAINS A
WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HIGH-RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT... WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. ALTHOUGH MARIA IS
GAINING SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... INCLUDING AN
EXPANSION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A LARGE BROAD WIND
FIELD...THE TRANSITION IS NOT YET COMPLETE.  CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOSTLY WARM
CORE. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...AND
IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11. MARIA CONTINUES MOVING
RATHER SLOWLY BECAUSE THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FAR
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. FOR NOW...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE
MARIA ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS...BETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/1500Z 39.1N  47.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 40.2N  46.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 41.7N  43.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 43.3N  41.3W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 45.5N  39.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 51.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 56.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/1200Z 61.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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