[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 081432
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

29.0N  79.3W      99  X  X  X 99   CHARLESTON SC      1  7  5  3 16
29.5N  78.7W      70  X  X  X 70   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  3  6  5 14
30.0N  78.0W      17  4  1  2 24   WILMINGTON NC      X  1  4  7 12
MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X  3  3   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  2  8 10
MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  2  2   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  1  6  7
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  3  3   NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  4  4
MYNN 251N 775W     X  1  1  4  6   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  2  2
MYGF 266N 787W     8  3  1  1 13   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  1  X  2  3
MIAMI FL           1  1  1  2  5   FT MYERS FL        1  1  X  2  4
W PALM BEACH FL    9  2  X  2 13   VENICE FL          1  X  1  2  4
FT PIERCE FL      25  X  X  1 26   TAMPA FL           4  1  X  2  7
COCOA BEACH FL    99  X  X  X 99   CEDAR KEY FL       2  2  1  2  7
DAYTONA BEACH FL  36  X  X  1 37   ST MARKS FL        X  1  1  2  4
JACKSONVILLE FL   10  4  2  1 17   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  2  2
SAVANNAH GA        2  8  4  2 16   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM FRI TO  8PM FRI
C FROM  8PM FRI TO  8AM SAT
D FROM  8AM SAT TO  8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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