[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 79.6...OR ABOUT
70 MILES ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...AT 08/1200 UTC AND IS
NEAR STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS A LARGER AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 31N76W
INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA TO 28N82W. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ONSHORE
FROM N OF JACKSONVILLE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

HURRICANE NATE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N 64.3W OR 130 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AT 08/1200 UTC MOVING NE AT 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS WITH SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75/100
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 28N65W-32N61W AND CLUSTERS DOTTING
THE AREA FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 58W-67W.

HURRICANE MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 38.3N 48.5W...OR 1010 NM W OF
THE AZORES...AT 07/0900 UTC MOVING NE AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. MARIA CONTINUES TO TRANSITION INTO A EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM...BUT STILL RETAINS CERTAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL
HURRICANE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS BEING SHEARED FROM
THE SW. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 35N-43N
BETWEEN 36W-54W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE SIGNATURE HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED OVERNIGHT AS AFRICAN DUST
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE CONTINENT OF AFRICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
12N18W TO ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15.5N16.5W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 23N MOVING W 15
KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT HAS BEGUN TO TILT TO THE E ON THE N
PORTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 41W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 57W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SAHARAN DUST SURGE AND THE TRAILING EDGE OF
AN UPPER LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 54W-62W INCLUDING SOME OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT SO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TRAIL THE WAVE FROM 15N TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
68W.72W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N22W 10N35W 13N50W 12N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
21W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO WITH FLOW TO THE W GULF
COAST. THE LOW CONTINUES TO WRAP DRY AIR OFF THE PLATEAU INTO
THE S AND E SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...A BROAD PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED UP THE E SIDE OF THE LOW
OVER THE FAR W GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO NEAR
18N93W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
21N96W TO 25N97W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TAIL END
OF T.S. OPHELIA EXTENDS FROM THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 25N85W TO THE NW GULF
NEAR 27N94W. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE 26N88W 27N94W 23N97W TO 18N95W INCLUDING THE COASTAL
AREAS OF S TEXAS/NE MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE FROM OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 22N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90.5W-94W.

CARIBBEAN...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER JAMAICA WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM W CUBA TO THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
72W-85W. NW FLOW FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH FROM AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE E ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE E PACIFIC WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA AND S BELIZE. FARTHER E...A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING
MODERATE NE/E FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W TO
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W INCLUDING ALL OF PANAMA AND NE COSTA RICA.
THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
EXCEPT IN THE SW PORTION WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM THE FLORIDA/
GEORGIA BORDER E TO 29N48W...SPANNING OVER BOTH T.S. OPHELIA AND
HURRICANE NATE. PATCH OF DRY AIR EXTENDS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
S OF 30N BETWEEN 69W TO 80W S OF T.S. OPHELIA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 26N52W THROUGH AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 20N58W TO 12N62W IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW IS
DRAWING MOISTURE N TO ITS E...AND SUPPORTING SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W. A LARGE UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 22N38W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 10N46W BUT
IT IS BEING PUSHED TO THE W BY A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N E OF 24W. ONE SURGE
OF SAHARAN DUST HAS CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT A SECOND
MORE CONCENTRATED SURGE IS ALIGNED E OF A LINE FROM 30N41W
16N35W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 8N30W.

$$
WALLACE



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