[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 080845
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT MARIA IS COMPLETING THE FINAL STAGE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
OVER THE EAST SIDE.  A RATHER LARGE REGION OF MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT...SPREADING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT.  AN EXTENSIVE...SHARP
EDGED...CIRRUS SHIELD IS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AS THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH A POLAR JET FINGER.  BASED ON THE
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  EVEN YESTERDAY MORNING'S MODERATE
RE-INTENSIFICATION WAS INDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSFORMATION STAGE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS...IT IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 050/11.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0900Z 38.3N  48.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 39.4N  46.9W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 41.0N  44.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 42.4N  42.2W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 44.2N  39.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 48.5N  35.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 54.0N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0600Z 59.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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