[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 072031
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

29.5N  80.0W      99  X  X  X 99   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  1  5  6
30.0N  80.2W      58  X  X  X 58   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  3  3
30.3N  80.0W      49  X  X  X 49   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  2  2
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  2  2   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  4  4
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  X  3  3   FT MYERS FL        X  1  X  5  6
MYGF 266N 787W     2  X  1  5  8   VENICE FL          X  1  1  5  7
MARATHON FL        X  X  X  2  2   TAMPA FL           3  2  2  4 11
MIAMI FL           X  X  X  4  4   CEDAR KEY FL       5  4  3  3 15
W PALM BEACH FL    2  1  1  4  8   ST MARKS FL        1  6  3  4 14
FT PIERCE FL      15  X  1  1 17   APALACHICOLA FL    X  2  4  5 11
COCOA BEACH FL    31  X  X  1 32   PANAMA CITY FL     X  2  3  5 10
DAYTONA BEACH FL  33  X  X  X 33   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  2  5  7
JACKSONVILLE FL   23  1  1  1 26   MOBILE AL          X  X  1  4  5
SAVANNAH GA        8  7  3  2 20   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  3  3
CHARLESTON SC      1  8  4  3 16   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  2  4  6 12   GULF 29N 85W       X  1  3  5  9
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  3  5  8   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  4  5

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM THU TO  2AM FRI
C FROM  2AM FRI TO  2PM FRI
D FROM  2PM FRI TO  2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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