[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 28.8N 79.4W...OR 70 NM
ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...AT 07/1800 UTC AND NEARLY
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASING
ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. A BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEMS N SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A 29N80W 30N78W 28N75W LINE. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
EXTEND WELL N OF THIS BAND AND ALSO OVER MOST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

HURRICANE NATE IS CENTERED NEAR 29.2N 66.2W...OR 210 NM SSW OF
BERMUDA...AT 07/1500 UTC AND IS DRIFTING SLOWLY N AT 3 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS AN EYE
HAS FORMED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS
OUTWARD 200 NM FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM
OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE.

HURRICANE MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 36.0N 50.9W AT 07/1500 UTC
MOVING NE 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MARIA IS BEGINNING TO
EXHIBIT A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
VERY SOON. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED MOSTLY OVER
THE STORMS N SEMICIRCLE. A 90 NM WIDE CLOUD BAND IS CENTERED
ALONG A LINE FROM 35N47W 30N52W 27N60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W FROM 9N TO 22N IS MOVING W ABOUT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WITHIN 7 TO 8 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W FROM 9N TO 18N IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS LESS DEFINED THAN THE ONE FURTHER E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. VISIBLE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE SAHARAN DUST E
OF THE WAVE AXIS TO ABOUT 48W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W/68W S OF 20N IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM 14.5N TO
19N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 7N30W 12N41W 10N62W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE AXIS TO
5N E OF 20W AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT
TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS NEARLY
ALL OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND IS CENTERED JUST INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N98W AND MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 21N TO 27N W OF
94W INTO S TEXAS AND MEXICO. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ALSO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH AND IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N74W.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
AN ELONGATED AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N54W AND MOVING WNW 10 TO 15
KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 10N61W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED 6 TO 7 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS LOCATED NE OF THE CIRCULATION AND IS
CENTERED ALONG 32N43W TO 22N55W. NE WINDS ARE 50 TO 60 KT W OF
THE SHEAR AXIS AND ABOUT 40 KT E OF THE AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 24N E OF ABOUT 50W TO
30W. OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS LOCATED FROM 32N20W TO 20N23W.

$$
CAB



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