[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CENTERED NEAR 28.5N 79.2W OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...AT 07/1200 UTC MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
OVER THE CENTER OF T.S. OPHELIA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IT IS STILL MAINLY LOCATED OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE DUE
TO MODERATE S SHEAR OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 30/45 NM RADIUS OF 29N79W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE
26N75.5W-30N76.5W-31N79.5W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MELBOURNE AND
JACKSONVILLE SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA MELBOURNE TO N OF JACKSONVILLE AND
OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TO NORTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL STORM NATE CENTERED NEAR 28.8N 66.53W...OR 225 NM SSW
OF BERMUDA...AT 07/0900 UTC DRIFTING SLOWLY NW AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SW
SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SW SHEAR. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE
29N67W-30.565W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 27N-31.5N BETWEEN 62W-68W. THIS CONVECTION WILL OVER
BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA CENTERED NEAR 35.2N 53.0W...OR 610 NM ENE
OF BERMUDA...AT 07/0900 UTC MOVING ENE 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MARIA
CONTINUES TO SUCCUMB TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 34N-40N BETWEEN
46W-55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W/38W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT WITH
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N. THE WAVE HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CURVATURE...HOWEVER THE LOW IS HAS BROADENED OVER NIGHT AND IS
LONGER AS DISCERNIBLE. A LARGE SWATH OF SAHARAN DUST IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE WAVE AND COMPLETELY ENSHROUDS THE WAVE EXCEPT E
OF THE WAVE AXIS TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WIDELY
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 22N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W/52W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE
LIES ROUGHLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SAHARAN DUST BUT
REALLY LACKS MUCH OF AN IDENTIFIABLE CURVATURE. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. THE
WAVE HAS A SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITHIN THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 63W-67W REGENERATING THIS MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER OVER E PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W S OF 19N MOVING
W 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE -0IN 120 NM OF THE COAST S OF 21N W OF 91W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N15W 7N20W 16N35W...THEN ALONG
12N40W 5N54W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 30/45 NM OF 16W FROM 9.5N-11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/90 NM OF LINE
8N15W-10.5N16.5W INLAND OVER GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 11.5N15W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE...NEAR STATIONARY...WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N93W AND IS PULLING A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE N FROM S MEXICO OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 88W AND THE COAST
OF NE MEXICO/S TEXAS. IN ADDITION...AN ILL-DEFINED 1010 MB LOW
IS LOCATED IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W. THE LOW...
CURRENTLY NEAR STATIONARY...IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW AND
COULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD MORE MOISTURE INLAND OVER COASTAL
MEXICO TONIGHT AND THU.

CARIBBEAN...
A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH JUST S OF CUBA NEAR 22N83W AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
IS BECOMING PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE LARGER GULF OF
MEXICO UPPER LOW. FARTHER S...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM S OF 13N TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-83W. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
A LARGE PATCH OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 68W-82W AND IS KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO S OF PUERTO
RICO DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER T.S. NATE NEAR 28N67W
WITH A RIDGE RUNNING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS JUST S OF T.S.
OPHELIA TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. THE RIDGE IS DICTATING THE
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING NATE...T.S. OPHELIA...AND T.S. MARIA.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION. FARTHER E...A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N42W 26N48W WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR 19N52W AND DRIFTING SLOWLY N. THE NORTHERLY
JET CONTINUES TO STREAM DOWN THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT WEAKEN WITH WINDS OF 50-60 KT. THIS IS ADVECTING CIRRUS
CLOUDS S OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW AND MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT
DISRUPTIVE FOR ANY KIND OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 23N32W WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 10N50W...AND IS KEEPING DRY SAHARAN AIR
CAPPED BENEATH THE TRADE WIND INVERSION. A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST N OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS E OF 26W.

$$
WALLACE


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