[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 070919
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

CORRECTED INTENSITY TABLE

MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA INDICATE NATE HAS MOVED LITTLE
...BUT MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A SLOW NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWARD DRIFT. A PARTIAL EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION GUESSTIMATE IS 315/02...BUT NATE COULD BE
QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF NATE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HOURS BY ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS AS
SRONMG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS A LITTLE NORTH...OR LEFT...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE
UKMET'S STRONG FAST AND RIGHT BIAS FROM THE OUTSET. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS.

SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THAT
AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THAT NATE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF
35-45 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0900Z 28.8N  66.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 29.2N  66.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 30.1N  66.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 31.6N  64.7W    80 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 33.0N  61.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 36.1N  53.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 39.5N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0600Z 44.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$


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