[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 070845
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

28.8N  79.8W      99  X  X  X 99   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  2  2
29.0N  80.1W      65  X  X  X 65   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  2  2
29.4N  80.3W      48  X  1  X 49   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  1  1  4  6
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  2  2   FT MYERS FL        1  2  2  4  9
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  3  4   VENICE FL          1  3  2  4 10
MYGF 266N 787W     9  1  1  2 13   TAMPA FL           5  5  2  3 15
MARATHON FL        X  X  X  3  3   CEDAR KEY FL       6  6  3  2 17
MIAMI FL           1  X  1  5  7   ST MARKS FL        1  6  4  4 15
W PALM BEACH FL   11  1  1  2 15   APALACHICOLA FL    X  4  4  4 12
FT PIERCE FL      34  X  X  X 34   PANAMA CITY FL     X  2  4  5 11
COCOA BEACH FL    41  X  X  X 41   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  2  6  8
DAYTONA BEACH FL  29  1  X  1 31   MOBILE AL          X  X  1  4  5
JACKSONVILLE FL   15  4  2  2 23   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  4  4
SAVANNAH GA        2  7  4  4 17   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
CHARLESTON SC      X  3  5  5 13   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  3  6  9   GULF 29N 85W       X  3  3  5 11
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  1  5  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  5  6
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  4  4   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM THU TO  2PM THU
C FROM  2PM THU TO  2AM FRI
D FROM  2AM FRI TO  2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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