[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 070317
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON MARIA...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING PRIMARY
CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65
KT...AND BASED ON THE WEAKER SATELLITE SIGNATURE SINCE 00Z THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT.  MARIA SHOULD WEAKEN A
LITTLE FURTHER BEFORE IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN
CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH AT
LEAST 120 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/7.  MARIA IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE STORM SHOULD
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION FOR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS MODEL CONU.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0300Z 34.7N  54.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 35.7N  52.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 37.1N  51.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 38.5N  48.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 40.1N  46.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 44.0N  41.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 49.0N  34.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0000Z 53.5N  26.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net