[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 070258
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS
SITUATED ABOUT 28 NM FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THE
IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE
DEVELOPING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB HAVE
INCREASED TO 55 KT...WHILE THE TAFB ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 65 KT.
BASED ON THE INCREASE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED
INNER CORE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.

NATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA AND
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING NATE'S LACK OF MOTION.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND DOES NOT
APPEAR TO AFFECTING THE STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH OF NATE.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
LITTLE MOTION...POSSIBLY A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD.  THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
BASED OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA AS A
HURRICANE...WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0300Z 28.8N  66.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  66.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 29.6N  66.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 30.5N  66.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 31.8N  64.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 35.0N  57.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 38.5N  46.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0000Z 44.0N  33.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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