[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 062146
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
070400-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
545 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
OFFSHORE THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER
INLET TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. IF THE
DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
THE SYSTEM WILL BE NAMED OPHELIA.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT EMPHASIZES ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
OF OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND LAKE SHOULD STAY
CLOSELY INFORMED SINCE THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DURING THE
DEVELOPMENT PHASE OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE DEPRESSION WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT
OR ON WEDNESDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE AFFECTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WILL BE FELT INITIALLY
OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
WITH THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION IS
ALSO EXPECTED.

THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY SO THERE IS TIME
TO MAKE INITIAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HOWEVER...REVIEW PERSONAL OR
BUSINESS ACTION PLANS AND REPLENISH HURRICANE SUPPLY KITS...SHOULD
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST. THE BEST THING THAT
CAN BE DONE AT THIS TIME IS TO PREPARE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL
STORM AND REMAIN DILIGENT IN KEEPING INFORMED.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER THE WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND WORK NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE ALREADY 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE WATERS AND WILL
BUILD TONIGHT...WITH SEAS LIKELY REACHING TO AROUND 12 FEET IN THE
WARNED AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS
ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 5 AND 10
INCHES...MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES AND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW MOVING. A FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED
TO START ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY START TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
SURGE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE TYPICAL FOR A TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT...LONG FETCH OF INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...BATTERING WAVES WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES. THIS
COULD RESULT IN BEACH EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF EACH HIGH TIDE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO A MAJOR BEACH EROSION EVENT.  THE GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST
FOR 2 DAYS OR MORE. AGAIN...THIS COULD RESULT IN MAJOR BEACH EROSION
IN SOME AREAS.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC SYSTEM MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA USUALLY RESULTS IN A VERY LOW THREAT FROM TORNADOES IN THE
OUTER RAINBANDS. IF A BRIEF TORNADO WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL ZONE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

RL

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