[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 061502
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
NATE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF
THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SO NATE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
TRENDS.

NATE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SO LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NATE SHOULD
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF NATE. BEYOND 48
HOURS...NATE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH. NATE SHOULD
THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.

IT APPEARS THAT BERMUDA WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST PATH OF NATE.
THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/1500Z 28.7N  66.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 28.8N  66.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  67.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  67.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 30.5N  67.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 32.5N  64.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 37.0N  53.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 42.5N  41.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net