[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 061445
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT FRI SEP  9 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.6N  79.3W      71  X  X  X 71   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  3  3
28.0N  79.7W      47  X  X  X 47   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  2  2
28.5N  80.0W      32  1  X  X 33   KEY WEST FL        X  X  1  3  4
MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X  2  2   MARCO ISLAND FL    5  2  2  3 12
MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  2  2   FT MYERS FL        7  3  2  2 14
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  1  3  4   VENICE FL          4  5  2  3 14
MYNN 251N 775W     2  1  1  3  7   TAMPA FL           6  6  2  3 17
MYGF 266N 787W    99  X  X  X 99   CEDAR KEY FL       2  8  4  3 17
MARATHON FL        1  X  1  4  6   ST MARKS FL        X  3  5  6 14
MIAMI FL          20  X  1  X 21   APALACHICOLA FL    X  2  4  6 12
W PALM BEACH FL   48  X  X  X 48   PANAMA CITY FL     X  1  3  6 10
FT PIERCE FL      39  X  X  X 39   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  1  6  7
COCOA BEACH FL    28  1  X  1 30   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  5  5
DAYTONA BEACH FL  15  5  2  1 23   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  3  3
JACKSONVILLE FL    2  9  4  4 19   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
SAVANNAH GA        X  3  6  5 14   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  2  2
CHARLESTON SC      X  1  4  6 11   GULF 29N 85W       X  2  3  6 11
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  2  6  8   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  5  6
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  1  4  5   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM WED TO  8PM WED
C FROM  8PM WED TO  8AM THU
D FROM  8AM THU TO  8AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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