[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.6N 56.7W...OR ABOUT  475
MILES...765 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA...AT 05/2100 UTC MOVING N 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 90 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 110 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB.  SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MARIA IS A GENERALLY
COMPACT HURRICANE BUT HAS DEVELOPED A 15 NM WIDE EYE. THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN EYEWALL WHILE
TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BECOME MORE RAGGED TO THE E. MARIA ALSO HAS
A BROAD CONVECTIVE TAIL THAT EXTENDS SWD TO 25N DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE N SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 31N-33N
BETWEEN 56W-59W.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W...OR
ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AT
05/2100 UTC...AND IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1008 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 63W-68W.

A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W DRIFTING
TO THE NW. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT THAT WELL-DEFINED IN
MIAMI RADAR IMAGERY BUT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION
IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED ESPECIALLY N OF THE
CENTER AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT AT FREEPORT AND
SETTLEMENT POINT BAHAMAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 29W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 13N. THE LOW IS NOT VERY WELL-DEFINED BUT THE WAVE
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES AN EXPANSIVE AREA BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 26W-34W. A SWATH
OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS WWD OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA N OF
THE WAVE...THEN CURLS INTO THE NW/W SIDE OF THE LOW.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 18N MOVING W
15 KT. THE WAVE HAS VIRTUALLY NO SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
BUT IT IS PLACED SOMEWHAT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFRICAN
DUST SURGE.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 58W MOVING W 15
KT.  THE WAVE IS UNDER EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH HAS PLACED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
58W-61W.  THE WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 86W S OF 18N
MOVING W 15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
83W-88W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 14N29W 9N40W 15N58W 9N70W.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION DUE TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W.  LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 92W-97W.
ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 87W-90W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER W CUBA BETWEEN 80W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SWD OVER THE
SOUTH U.S. AND IS OVER THE W GULF WATERS N OF 22N W OF 86W.
THE TROUGH INITIALLY BEGAN ADVECTING DRIER AIR SWD OVER THE NRN
GULF AND NOW A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU IS
REINFORCING THIS WITH NLY FLOW BRINGING AN AREA OF MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE SWD OFF THE TEXAS COAST. ELSEWHERE...FLORIDA AND THE
ERN GULF E OF 86W IS CURRENTLY UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TO
A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC.  EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO EXTEND FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.  IN ADDITION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
77W-81W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N86W TRIGGERING A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W.  AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
63W-75W.  EXPECT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TWO TROPICAL
WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEST ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE MARIA...T.D. FIFTEEN... AND A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE N
BAHAMAS ARE STRUNG ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 30N70W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOVE
HURRICANE MARIA.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N42W MOVING NW EMBEDDED WITHIN A BIGGER UPPER
TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-50W. THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
SERVING AS AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR HURRICANE MARIA...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CIRRUS EXPANDING OUT THE SE SIDE OF THE STORM. A LARGE
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED FARTHER E NEAR 20N20W COVERING THE
ATLANTIC E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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