[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.0N 56.9W OR ABOUT 410 NM  E
OF BERMUDA AT 05/0300 UTC MOVING NNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
MARIA REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE
26N53W-31.5N57.5W.

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N67W OR ABOUT 330 NM SSW OF
BERMUDA DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS LOW IS BENEATH THE E
SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER... CONDITIONS DO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS 60 NM OF 25.5N FROM 65W-67.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER A BROADER AREA FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 63W-70W.

A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N77W OVER THE N BAHAMAS
OFF THE S FLORIDA COAST AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. THIS IS A BROAD
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N-29N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A
1009 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. WAVE IS BENEATH AN
UPPER RIDGE THUS MOVING THE CONVECTION NW AWAY FROM THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
12N26W-16N23W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 19N MOVING W 10
KT. WEAK WAVE SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING W
15-20 KT WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. WAVE IS
BENEATH THE BASE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THUS MOVING THE CONVECTION TO
THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10-17N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 17N MOVING W 15
KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR
9N79W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N18W 12N28W 13N48W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE 11N22W-6N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 8N31W-14N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TEXAS IS ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE FOUND FROM FLORIDA NEAR APALACHEE BAY
TO TEXAS S OF GALVESTON BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE S GULF FROM AN
UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA...AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS INTO MEXICO.
THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 25N WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW
OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS FLORIDA GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS GIVING THE E GULF LOW LEVEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF 85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS NEAR 18N87W WITH FLOW EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL W OF 83W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN MID/UPPER
HIGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N82W. THIS COMBINATION IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF 80W.
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS FORCING THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN
UPPER RIDGE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND TO 66W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SURFACE 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
IN THE BAHAMAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND
E TO OVER THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW...BOTH WHICH ARE IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES. JUST TO THE E...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A BROAD UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR HURRICANE MARIA EXTENDS
AN UPPER RIDGE S INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH FLOW FROM 48W-60W.
THIS IS GIVING THE FAR W TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A MID/UPPER TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST SE OF THE AZORES SW
TO A SECOND BROADER UPPER LOW NEAR 29N40W THEN S TO 17N42W.
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER HURRICANE MARIA AND THE
UPPER LOW NEAR 29N40W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
22N48W-26N52W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC N OF THE ITCZ TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 34W. THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST N OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 30N E OF 30W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

$$
WALLACE


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