[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA AT 04/2100 UTC IS NEAR 30.3N 56.1W
OR ABOUT 530 MILES...855 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE HURRICANE HAS A
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS.  THUS ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...
MARIA IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 STATUS
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  PRESENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 55W-57W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THIS WAVE NEAR 16N.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 20W-24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 19W-27W.

EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS A RELATIVELY WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  IT IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS MODEL TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHOUT MUCH PRECIPITATION DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY
PROBABLY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WEST 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-80W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
80W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 16N20W 12N26W 14N50W 7N60W.  SEE
CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL WAVES.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LIGHT NE SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GULF.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
80W-82W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF W CUBA FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
88W-92W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 96W-98W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG THE BASE OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 98W-99W DUE TO THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ANTICYCLONIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE N BAHAMAS.  CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS E TO NE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE DUE TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION E OF THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE FAR W GULF...W
OF 95W...HAS NORTHERLY FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE DUE TO A
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER N MEXICO.  EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA...W CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 80W...AND A 1006 MB LOW INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 81W-85W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
87W-91W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W.  A
RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM N COLOMBIA IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 70W-80W.  FINALLY AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM VENEZUELA
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...AND ALL OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ALSO BRING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 2100 UTC A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
27N78W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
75W-80W.  THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED SINCE IT HAS GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  FURTHER EAST...A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED
NEAR 27N66W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 64W-68W.  THIS LOW IS MOVING N AND WILL
ALSO BE MONITORED.   HURRICANE MARIA IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC MOVING NORTH NORTH-WEST.  BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SUBTROPICS E
OF 50W BETWEEN 20N-30N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N76W.  ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ABOVE HURRICANE MARIA.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N36W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S TO 15N40W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 22N15W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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